CSO Spillcast — Bicester (CNTD.0023)

48-hour combined sewer overflow (CSO) spill forecast for Bicester (CNTD.0023), refreshed every 6 hours. ← all CSOs

Live 48-hour forecast

48-hour spill probability forecast for Bicester

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⬇ Download forecast data (CSV)

Model reliability (held-out test period)

How the model performed on the most recent 6 months of observed data that it was never trained on — a guide to how much to trust the live forecast above.

Reliability time series for Bicester on the held-out test period

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Test-set skill: F1 0.7835  |  PR-AUC 0.8381  |  ROC-AUC 0.972  |  Brier skill 0.5952

About this forecast

  • Predicts the probability of a spill in each 15-minute interval over the next 48 hours.
  • Driven by rainfall forecasts and an Antecedent Wetness Index (AWI) tracking how saturated the catchment is.
  • Refreshed every 6 hours. All times are UTC.
  • Experimental research model. Do not use for operational or safety-critical decisions.